I agree with your analysis of the current situation. However I do have quibbles with some of your conclusions.
If we get 10,000 new ringers into the Blue Zone, particularly if they don't learn at university or younger, the reality is that they will not enter the Red Zone - they won't get over that hurdle of ringing methods that aren't Plain Bob and Grandsire
If all they get taught is PB & GS then it's not exactly surprising if that's all they achieve. I ring at one small and mostly unknown guild's very well attended monthly 6-bell practice and although there is some PB & GS, the majority is TB & Surprise, and there's a "Method of the month". It's all ringers "of a certain age", all keen to progress who are being supported in doing so. Are they ever going to get to the heady heights of BMax? Unlikely, but that shouldn't mean they are sidelined - these people are the seed bed for the upper reaches.
We acknowledge that we can create competent Bob Minor ringers, but continuing a training programme beyond that is hard.
Yes, it is but I don't think that justifies not trying. My historically-call-changes-only home tower is unlikely to churn out PB ringers, mostly because that's not what we are asking people to learn. They are more likely to ring something like Double Oxford first. None of them can do so yet, but they all successfully rang the frontwork within 10 mins of first trying, and without looking at the blue line. That was a deliberate decision - the point of it was to show them that DblOx was a realistic thing to aim for, and we are now working on the other skills they need, for example simulator sessions to sharpen up bell control and ringing by place, which they are tackling with enthusiasm. Will that be successful? I don't know, but I think a new approach is badly needed, even if it isn't ours.
Endless clanking away at PB is an exercise in demotivation, like much of ringing teaching it's no longer not for purpose. I'd love to see is a thought-through and detailed pathway from PH to Surprise, having been through the ART process myself, it's "Now go learn methods" at L4/5 just doesn't cut it. The 95% drop-off rate between L1 & 5 is no surprise to me, I gave up on ART after L4. Getting people to L3/4 is a big investment, not fully capitalising on it is a waste of resources that I don’t think ringing can afford.
There will be a fast track through for people who learn young, and a small number of cities plus the SRCY and ASCY will support them.
I understand why something like ARA is attractive for people who have been grinding away at the problem for years with little support let alone thanks and I don't disagree with fast tracking talent, but I don't know of any similar activity to ringing that's survived by concentrating only on the elite. My conviction is that a plan that's based purely on elite ringing is doomed to fail.
There's also tremendous selection bias going on here - the ringers who are picked up by programmes such as ARA have already been subject to a heavy pruning process. ARA isn't dealing with all the youngsters who turn up and don't make it that far, and they
are the majority. And without a viable community at the lower levels, who is going to give the young talent the basic training and a regular band to ring with that they need? If there's no pipeline, there's going to be no pool for ARA to draw from.
Is there anything we can do about that?
Yes, lots that can be done. But that's going to need people at the top engaging and listening to people at the bottom, and I'm afraid that's not one of the ringing community's strengths. To be direct, there's far too much "We didn't learn that way" and "We know best". Well, clearly not, because if that
was the case, ringing wouldn't be in crisis. Personally I have little appetite left for engagement, other that grumping on this rather moribund forum, I've been "put in my place" far too often to want to bother any more. I'll continue to work on my own ringing and helping my own band because I think I can make a difference there. But ringing in general? Hah!
Does it matter if there isn't?
Yes, immensely. Because without it, ringing is dead.